Arizona
Obamacare Enrollment Declines Across Most States as Federal Subsidies Expire
In 49 states, the number of people enrolled in Obamacare plans has declined since Congress made coverage more expensive by allowing federal subsidies to expire at the end of last year. The lone exception was New Mexico, the only state…
Last updated:
Key points
- Obamacare enrollment has declined in 49 states since the expiration of federal subsidies.
- New Mexico is the only state maintaining enrollment levels by using state funds.
- Projected premium increases for 2027 could further deter enrollment.
NewsWK — Recent analysis reveals a significant drop in Obamacare enrollment, with 49 states reporting declines since the expiration of federal subsidies at the end of last year. New Mexico stands out as the only state that has managed to maintain enrollment levels by utilizing its own funds to replace the lost aid.
The Trump administration announced that participation in the health insurance marketplaces created under the Affordable Care Act has decreased by nearly 3 million people, falling from approximately 21.8 million in 2025 to about 19.2 million this year. This decline comes after a period of substantial growth, which the Trump administration attributed to efforts to remove fraudulent enrollees who misrepresented their income to qualify for free plans.
However, the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) connects the enrollment drop primarily to the cessation of enhanced federal subsidies that had become available during the pandemic through the American Rescue Plan Act. These subsidies provided financial assistance to many individuals, significantly lowering premium costs.
State-by-State Enrollment Trends
Enrollment reductions have varied by state. States with their own insurance exchanges saw an average decline of 6%, while those relying on the federal marketplace experienced a steeper average drop of 15%. The most pronounced decreases were noted in Ohio and Oklahoma, with enrollments down by 32%, followed by Arizona at 30%, and South Carolina at 29%. Conversely, New Mexico reported an increase of 14% in enrollment.
Justin Lo, a KFF senior researcher, emphasized the complexity of enrollment patterns, noting that many individuals who initially sign up may later drop their coverage due to financial constraints. He stated, “We had a huge growth in the marketplace uptake because a lot of people were seeing that they could now qualify for very cheap plans.”
Future Outlook for Obamacare Premiums
Looking ahead, the KFF report highlights concerns regarding the sustainability of coverage as many enrollees struggle to maintain their plans. For example, Mississippi had the lowest retention rate, with only 61% of enrollees keeping their coverage past January. In contrast, states like New Mexico and California reported retention rates of at least 95%.
The anticipated premium increases for 2027 are also a concern, with insurers proposing a median hike of 14%, marking the second consecutive year of double-digit increases. The final rates will be confirmed later this summer.
Based on reporting by Shalina Chatlani originally published by Stateline. Read the original story.
